FOP Watch: They Don’t Need Causation

CausationCausation and correlation are different and someone should really explain the differences to the FOP Spokesman because it is perfectly clear he just does not get it. Or just doesn’t want to. That is also a possibility.

This is a commentary on the FOP’s latest blog titled “The Politics of the Chicago Police Homicide Clearance Rate.” I would recommend you read it but this one is so disorganized that I doubt it would help. No worries I took one for the team to bring you a little commentary on their rhetoric.

“In 2014 Scott Drury, then a member of the Illinois House of Representatives, championed a law that drastically changed the requirements for how police conducted lineups in Illinois.

Lauded by his friends on the Left, Drury’s law had nothing to do with actual justice, only his embrace of social justice, which is often a euphemism for stopping the police from enforcing the law in minority communities.”

The Watch, 10/27/19

Well, it has everything to do with justice. There is plenty of scientific evidence to proves that eyewitness identification is highly correlated with wrongful convictions. As of 2016 research shows that false eye witness identification played a role in 70% of wrongful convictions. Now, what I am stating is a fact confirmed by scientific research by such left-wing conspirators at the American Psychological Association. I am sure it means nothing to the FOP leadership. 

The leadership at the FOP does not believe that any individuals were every wrongfully convicted in Chicago because Chicago Police are infallible. A militant position to say the least. Just total denial.

Just a quick refresher of just a few of the corrupt and brutal officers that have been part of the  CPD over the last couple decades.

“With the knowledge that the ACLU had once already successfully branded the entire department racist without any push back, officers became extremely reluctant to make proactive stops and put their personal information and livelihood in the hands of the ACLU. To officers, it appeared the ACLU and City weren’t interested in justice, only in discouraging police work. Investigatory stops plummeted. The murder rate jumped a shocking 58%—to 762 dead in 2016. An overwhelming majority were African American.”

The Watch, 10/27/19

First, in a democracy police should have to defend their actions because as far as I know during this time frame, and still as of this writing, we have a right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. A stop by the police is infringement of my liberty and the government should have to prove to an independent arbiter that the stop was justified. If they cannot defend their actions its usually a pretty good indicator that they should not have taken those actions. It is amazing to me how ultra conservative cops forget that they are the literal embodiment of the tool government will use to oppress it citizens. 

Second, they are trying to directly link the change in the stop and frisk program and the huge jump in homicides. This is their belief without a shred of evidence to back it up. There is may be indeed a correlation between the two but that is not evidence. Well, it is not evidence for anyone interested in finding the real cause. In New York City they greatly reduced stop and frisk and crime continued its declines. Once again correlation only but at least I am citing something rather than trying to pass of my opinion as fact just because. Scholars and top brass within the CPD have no idea why it shot up and don’t really know why it is now dropping. That by the way is a fact.

“Groups of youths began openly smoking cannabis, and an already growing display of disrespect for the police and lawlessness in Chicago became emboldened. Enforcement against violent gangs that profit from cannabis sales became much more difficult.”

The Watch, 10/27/19

The key to this one is that for some reason the author believes that disrespect for the officers was not already emboldened in the communities he is talking about by maybe decades of brutality, dispirit policing and law enforcement, corruption. Also, there is clear evidence of being delusional because it seems as if he thinks the drug war has been successful. That by itself is enough to disqualify his opinion. 

“In December 2016, Kim Foxx took over as the Cook County State’s Attorney. Under the banner of “social, racial and economic justice,” she instructed her assistants to seek no bonds for offenders who didn’t meet her high threshold. Chief Judge Timothy Evans followed through with an edict that bond judges set bail at a dollar amount defendants can afford. When there was pushback from bond judges who didn’t see the wisdom in allowing chronic shoplifters and gun offenders to walk out of court only to reoffend (often the very same day),”

The Watch, 10/27/19

I already written about all the problems with this logic. You can read about it here. Somehow the FOP Spokesman is trying to link bond reform practices with the reduction in violent crime that Chicago is experiencing – because violent crime is not going up. Well, I am sure Foxx would love to take that praise but once again all he has is correlation and not causation. Political extremism does not require rigorous evidence just enough to justify their shouting at the windmill.

The jury is out on the impact of bond reform in Chicago. It is definitely going to be harder to figure out the impact as the program was put in place during a violent crime decline and it has continued to go down during the early months of the program. While far from the rigorous evidence we need it certainly isn’t evidence of a horrible program run amuck. 

The rest I will not dignify with a response. It is more political extremist rhetoric about the evil cabal of the media and civil rights lawyers. You may want to read it and keep the link handy so that anytime a reporter quotes this guy in a story without providing context of his conspiracy theory driven ideologies you can let the reporter know they should have.

Tracy has nearly two decades of experience researching and working within criminal justice systems. When Tracy began pursuing a career dedicate to system reform, he found that no single organization existed to promote evidence-based discussions among law enforcement agencies and the communities they serve. Recognizing that citizens in Chicago deserved the right to demand transparency in their criminal justice system, Siska established the Chicago Justice Project. He received his Master of Arts degree in Criminal Justice at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

Recommended Articles

Chicago Justice Podcast

This is our Chicago Justice Podcast that covers crime, violence, and justice issues in Chicago. We will feature deep dives in to justice system data, interview with researchers and justice system reform advocates, as well as evaluations of justice system practices.

Subscribe To CJP's Latest Updates

Sign up today for insider details about our advocacy & litigation campaigns!


You can unsubscribe at any time. We will never sell or share your information.